Cod quotas decline while pollock output rises, driven by Russia

Cod production in Norwegian waters has continued to decline, prompting scientific recommendations for further quota reductions. Ahead of negotiations in the Barents Sea, the Atlantic cod quota for 2026 is proposed to be cut by 21%, significantly affecting supply to the EU, the UK, and the United States. Reduced Norwegian cod supply is creating opportunities for alternative suppliers such as Scotland and Canada to expand their market share in the EU.

At the same time, supply from Russia is facing major disruptions as the United States will officially ban imports of Russian-origin cod and haddock from January 1, 2026, under the Marine Mammal Protection Act. This regulation is forcing Chinese processing plants—many of which rely heavily on Russian raw materials for U.S.-bound production—to limit new purchases from Russia in order to mitigate trade risks.

With Norwegian raw material prices remaining elevated, processing plants are under increasing pressure to secure alternative sources. Alaska pollock continues to be a key supply pillar in the global whitefish market. As part of its strategy to boost seafood exports in 2026, the Russian Federation has increased catch quotas, with pollock export volumes forecast to rise by 3–4% year-on-year compared to 2025.

Farmed whitefish: Growth momentum led by tilapia and pangasius

Amid declining wild whitefish supply and rising raw material prices, farmed whitefish is emerging as a key global trend due to stable production and cost competitiveness. However, farmed species are also increasingly affected by tariff policies.

Tilapia continues to show strong growth, with China maintaining its position as the world’s largest supplier. Nevertheless, Chinese tilapia faces a 45% import tariff in the U.S. market, creating opportunities for alternative suppliers. Vietnamese tilapia is gradually expanding its market share and is expected to become a potential substitute source, supported by processing capabilities and the ability to meet market requirements.

For pangasius, Vietnam continues to maintain a stable supply thanks to its integrated supply chain, ensuring consistent volume and quality. However, in the U.S. market, despite being exempt from anti-dumping duties under POR20 results, Vietnamese pangasius has been subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff since August 7, 2025. This has increased import costs, reduced margins for importers, and may weaken pangasius’ price competitiveness relative to other whitefish species. As a result, many exporters are shifting toward deep-processed pangasius products for the U.S. market while actively expanding into non-traditional destinations beyond their core markets.

Overall trend: Volatile supply and shifting demand

Global whitefish supply is increasingly constrained by lower catch quotas, unfavorable weather conditions, bycatch risks, and the combined impacts of tariffs and geopolitical factors. These disruptions are driving higher raw material and product prices, leading to changes in consumption patterns across major markets: demand for cod is weakening due to high prices, while pollock and farmed whitefish are gaining preference. This trend is expected to persist through 2026.

The shift toward aquaculture-based whitefish products—supported by closed-loop production systems, stronger quality control, and sustainability compliance—is projected to accelerate. With advantages in cost efficiency and supply stability, tilapia and pangasius are expected to continue playing a critical role in the global whitefish supply landscape.